Americans are willing to pay about $5 trillion to stop the spread of COVID-19 and save as many lives as possible—dwarfing the to spend to support the U.S. economy and its workers. To get to that figure, we calculated the implicit value of public intervention measures like social distancing and statewide lockdowns—meant to prevent people from catching COVID-19 and possibly dying—by estimating how much people are willing to pay to have them implemented.
在线看的免费网站黄2019We conclude—based on modeling the spread of the disease and examining epidemiological and economic data—that the average person is essentially willing to pay $15,000 to reduce the rates of infection through social distancing, shelter-in-place and other interventions. We then multiplied that by the population of the U.S. to get an aggregate figure.
Why it matters
在线看的免费网站黄2019Health officials that strong social distancing measures should remain in place for a prolonged period of time, while others lifted immediately. Economists frequently calculate what people are willing to pay to find an answer to questions like these. The U.S. Department of Transportation, for example, of $28,800 per injury avoided for minor injuries and $9.6 million per life saved for interventions that reduce fatality risks—such as building a new highway or adding a train line.
Clearly, it would not be reasonable to wait to ease the restrictions until the fatality rate of COVID-19 falls to zero. We accept deaths arising from the seasonal flu and deaths that could be avoided by allocating more resources to medical research, and we readily accept potentially deadly hazards in our daily activities, like when we get in a car. The key is to find the right balance, as we often do with other risks, ensuring that the costs of the measures adopted do not exceed the benefits.
在线看的免费网站黄2019Our research shows that, in the aggregate, the benefits in terms of lives saved and morbidity avoided can well justify the enormous economic costs brought by social distancing measures. An important caveat, however, is that since most of the benefits of these measures accrue to a relatively small group of highly vulnerable individuals—while the cost burden fall on the entire population—not everybody may willingly accept those measures, as evidenced by .
What still isn’t known
Our results are suggestive, but preliminary. Some of the assumptions of our model regarding the spread of the virus, the risk factors associated with severe illness, and how hospitals respond to a surge in demand may prove wrong. In addition, much empirical analysis remains to be done, especially in relation to the non-monetary benefits and costs of social distancing interventions.
What other research is being done
在线看的免费网站黄2019The COVID-19 pandemic has generated a lot of interest among economists, as you’d expect. The European Economic Association alone exploring data related to the pandemic, ranging from to of social distancing interventions.
is a professor of economics and financial studies at , and is an associate dean of undergraduate programs and operations and an associate professor of economics financial studies at
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